Hungary, Serbia, now … Israel? 

As Israel votes today, there is hope in Brussels and Tel Aviv that a path to a reset in diplomatic ties could follow. But that’s only if today’s election spells the end for Benjamin Netanyahu. 

If he – and most importantly his far-right ally Itamar Ben-Gvir – manage to cling on, then expect some of the many EU sanctions long threatened but never enacted to finally become reality.

“It’s going to be very problematic if this government is re-elected and gets the democratic legitimacy. I don’t see [that] the EU, or even those member states like the Czech Republic, [could] really protect Israel,” said Maya Sion Tzidkiyahu, an expert on EU-Israel relations at Mitvim, an Israeli think tank.

If Netanyahu’s coalition continues, she foresees a “collapse” in the EU-Israel relationship. “It would give [Bezalel] Smotrich and Ben-Gvir a green light to do even harsher things,” she said.

A four-party ‘bloc of change’ led by centrist Gadi Eisenkot – a former general whose son was killed in action in Gaza – wants to dislodge Netanyahu’s far-right coalition after four calamitous years, which included a deeply unpopular judicial overhaul, the 7 October terror attacks by Hamas, and a multi-front regional war. The latest polls showed neither bloc with an outright majority, making Arab parties potential kingmakers.

Relations with the EU – not well regarded in Israel – are not a priority in this election, but Israel’s deteriorating international reputation has been used as a bludgeon by the opposition parties.

With this election on the horizon, the EU pumped the brakes on the sanctions it had threatened over Israel's conduct in Gaza. Countries like France and Sweden then searched for lower-hanging fruit but were thwarted by the European Commission, which blocked sanctions on illegal settlements, even as countries like Britain pressed ahead.

For a reset to materialise, Brussels would likely have to see changes on the ground, be it a commitment to stop the E1 settlement building plans, letting dual-use aid into Gaza, or taking tough measures against violent Jewish settlers.

Climate climbdown

For years, the idea of 'adapting' to global warming was seen as a controversial betrayal of serious climate action. How times change.

The Commission will today tell countries they must prepare for Europe to become four degrees hotter in the next century than it was before the Industrial Revolution, my colleague Nikolaus J. Kurmayer writes.

Teresa Ribera, the Spanish commissioner, will present a comprehensive overhaul of EU doctrine in her new ‘Climate Resilience Framework’. 

It’s personal for Ribera, a Socialist whose bid for her current job was almost derailed by the opposition People’s Party, which blamed her for the devastating Valencia floods in 2024 (the PP was in charge of the region at the time, and still is). Those floods killed 232 people, and fresh flooding hit Valencia just a week ago.

The timing of the Commission announcement is also politically charged. Spain votes in a little over a month, pitting Ribera's governing socialists against a coalition between the PP and climate change-denying Vox.

Brussels eyes a more powerful Frontex

The Commission will today unveil its review of Frontex, the EU’s border agency, amid a broader push to tighten migration policy.

The review will expand Frontex’s powers on returns, cooperation with non-EU countries and tackling cross-border crime and hybrid threats.

Rapporteur first revealed that plans also included a role for Frontex in returning people from one non-EU country to another – a power the agency’s current mandate does not allow.

Ursula von der Leyen earlier expressed her ambition to triple Frontex’s standing corps to 30,000 officers, a plan that has faced pushback from several EU capitals, who wanted the EU executive to focus on the force’s tasks rather than its size. 

Stubb dreams of a 40-member EU

Alexander Stubb, the Finnish president, laid out his vision of an EU with roughly 40 member states by 2056, speaking at the College of Europe's academic-year opening in Bruges on Monday. His wish list includes Ukraine, Moldova, the Western Balkans, Britain, Norway, Iceland and Switzerland – with Canada becoming “at least an associate member.” 

Stubb argued that crises have historically driven European integration, predicting that the EU would both deepen and widen over the next three decades. “I began my studies in an era of light, you begin yours in an era of darkness," the College alumnus said.

Here are three new stories from Rapporteur:

• EU looks to Canada to bolster Ukraine financing

• Turkey-Libya maritime deal will soon test EU

• EU, Canada to deepen defence cooperation

WHO WOULD HAVE GUESSED? A former secretary general of the Commission recommending … a stronger Secretariat-General. That was the main takeaway from Catherine Day’s list of recommendations to reform the EU executive, unveiled on Monday. 

The 650-strong sec-gen is already the beating heart of the Commission, and is personally controlled by Ursula von der Leyen. The sec-gen should immediately become a much more powerful political and strategic instrument, the report suggests, casting it in a new role as the convenor and ultimate arbiter of political disagreements across the institution. 

A new “priority delivery service” seated in the ‘sec-gen’ would allow top officials to quickly push legislation through the often labyrinthine civil service, giving it a firmer political steer from the get-go.

Day’s report was presented as an external view, which rather glosses over the decade she spent atop the Commission. The former sec-gen expects to be listened to in full. “A piecemeal selection of only some of the recommendations will not deliver the best results,” her report concludes. Luckily for her, it has already been all but endorsed. She announced it not just alongside Piotr Serafin, the admin commissioner, but Ursula von der Leyen herself.  Read my full story.

🇷🇸 BELGRADE

Sunday’s electoral defeat of Aleksandar Vučić's Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) has filled many Serbians with hope for a European future, with the Student List gaining a clear parliamentary majority. The outcome follows two years of protests against Vučić's government, which was widely accused of weakening democratic institutions, restricting media freedom and concentrating power. Questions remain as to whether the movement can deliver lasting change and bring Serbia closer to the EU. But the spirit of elation is palpable, as many told Rapporteur.

– Pavle Kosić

🇩🇪 BERLIN

Germany’s conservatives remain divided over their candidate to succeed President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, whose second term ends next year. The Federal Convention will elect his successor on 30 January, but Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democrats (CDU) and their Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), have yet to agree on a nominee. The CSU backs Bavarian parliament president Ilse Aigner, while the CDU has not named a preferred candidate. Merz dodged questions about the nomination at the CSU’s party conference over the weekend.

– Björn Stritzel

🇸🇪 STOCKHOLM

Senior figures in Sweden’s Social Democrats fear that caretaker Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson could remain in power despite the centre-left’s election victory, according to Swedish media. Linn Svansbo, a Social Democratic regional politician, said disagreements between the Left and Centre parties over joining a government could prevent party leader Magdalena Andersson from taking office. Former party strategist Anne-Marie Lindgren also questioned Andersson’s relationship with Left Party leader Nooshi Dadgostar and warned that the centre-left might struggle in another snap election.

– Charles Szumski

🇪🇸 MADRID

Spain’s main conservative opposition party, the People’s Party (PP), and far-right Vox agreed on Monday to coordinate their Senate candidate lists ahead of November’s elections, to avoid splitting the right-wing vote. The unprecedented deal, which covers 23 constituencies, aims to secure a Senate majority against a joint candidacy by Pedro Sánchez’s Socialist Party (PSOE) and the leftist Frente Amplio coalition. PP senior official Miguel Tellado said the agreement would protect the centre-right’s upper-house majority from the “radical left”.

– Inés Fernández-Pontes

🇨🇿 PRAGUE

The Czech government on Monday backed plans to enshrine the koruna in the constitution, making future euro adoption more difficult. Finance Minister Alena Schillerová called the proposal a strong political signal of the coalition’s commitment to the national currency. The amendment would not remove Czechia’s EU obligation to eventually adopt the euro, but would require a three-fifths parliamentary majority for any currency change. The government lacks the votes to pass the amendment and will need opposition support in both chambers.

– Aneta Zachová

🇸🇰 BRATISLAVA

Slovak Foreign Minister Juraj Blanár met his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov on Monday as the two countries resumed intergovernmental talks on economic cooperation. Blanár defended dialogue with Moscow – “whether the opposition loudmouths like it or not” – pledging cooperation in areas unaffected by sanctions, energy in particular. He also offered Bratislava as a venue for lower-level peace talks on Ukraine. Slovakia's opposition condemned the visit as collaboration, alleging that Blanár had secretly discussed lifting restrictions on a number of Russian diplomats in Slovakia.

– Natália Silenská

🇧🇬 SOFIA

Bulgaria’s presidential rivals drew battle lines after Sunday’s close first round forced a runoff on 1 November. Incumbent Iliana Yotova vowed to be a “president of peace”, rejecting “foreign flags” in Bulgarian squares and a return to backroom coalition deals. Challenger Andrey Gyurov said the country needs an “active president” to counter the concentration of power and challenged Yotova to a televised debate. Prime Minister Rumen Radev framed the contest as a choice “between war and peace”, while third-placed Kostadin Kostadinov declared himself a potential kingmaker.

– Konstantin Karadjov

Contributors: Nikolaus J. Kurmayer, Sofia Sanchez Manzanaro, Magnus Lund Nielsen, Bruno Waterfield

Editors: Orlando Whitehead, Sofia Mandilara, Charles Szumski